Staying Home
Posted by Fred Jandt
Mass Transit magazine editor
I was talking to a friend last night about the latest movie releases and we discussed how HDTV and the increased quality (and size) of televisions has made going to the movies an option, not a necessity. This might be the tip of the proverbial iceberg in the reasons why people aren’t traveling as much these days. Note I didn’t say driving.
Think about going to the movies for a minute. How much does that cost you — especially if you have a family? Just for tickets it’s an investment. And then there’s the snacks — popcorn, soda, candy — and the intangibles. Those intangibles include getting to the theater on time, getting a seat and dealing with other audience members.
Now compare that to sitting in front of a high-def TV in your living room. Most cable providers offer a variety of PPV movies these days with increasing speed from their release in the theaters. Snacks are arguably free when you compare the price to what you pay in the theater. The only audience you need to deal with is your family, and you can pause the movie if you need to use the bathroom.
That makes you think twice about dropping the money for a trip to the movies. It goes from a fun family outing to a planned “event.†More and more people are changing their minds as to what they will and will not travel for.
In 2008 vehicle miles traveled was down 3.8 percent. Okay, so people were driving less. You could say the increased gas prices caused this. But air travel was also down by 1.5 percent. So people didn’t travel as much. Economic factors can explain that. But transit saw a 4.0 percent increase in 2008. Transit’s detractors will point to the drop-off in vehicle miles as an offset to transit’s increase. But transit’s increase was actually less in urban areas than in rural ones.
Put simply, people aren’t traveling as much as they used to. And the FAA’s recently released 2009 predictions of an 8.8 percent drop in domestic travel show people really aren’t traveling like they used to.
Now the question becomes whether people, once they change their normal travel routines, will ever start traveling like they used to. The FAA says they will, predicting increases in air travel as early as 2010. But like movies, will people realize they have comparable options with less travel?
Transit is proving that people do not need to make that realization. They can still travel without needing to rely on the car. And with an increased federal desire for intercity rail networks, especially high-speed rail, the reliance on air travel may continue to lessen as well.
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Thanks for reading the MT Position updated every Friday,
Fred
fred.jandt@cygnusb2b.com
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April 3rd, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Interesting logic, Fred.
Let’s take another look at the movies. While going out to the movies is in a ‘mass audience’ theater setting, we really don’t interact. The bigger benefit of viewing the same movie in “Ft. Livingroom”, is the “COMFORT FACTOR”. You can spread out, kick your shoes off, cuddle, smoke, enjoy your recreational beverage of choice, talk, interact…
You can also choose to pause, rewind, or fast forward the feature. You can also avoid the first 20 minutes of coming attractions and commercials!
Now, let’s look at mass transit.
A little odd, don’t you think, that the trend is moving in that direction. For years, the main school of thought has been a preference for the family car. “Hey, in my car I can leave when I want, eat, drink, smoke, listen to my radio…etc.” Sure, on the bus (or rail), you have to abide by house rules and social ettiquite; No smoking, no eating, no radio playing, no spitting, no loud cell phone convos, yield your seat to the elderly and disabled…
Then, you are subject to the schedule of the conveyance provider…
BUT, people are willing to do that!
AND, I think they see the potential to expand and increase service and area coverage!
Case in point, where I live in Central New Mexico, new rail service has been established linking Albuquerque to Santa Fe. It was a hit! People that used to commute the 120 mi (or so) round trip have opted for the commuter rail (which actually takes longer because of routing issues around a steep hill). People like the interaction and have formed cliques and commuter clubs within certain train schedules. Some trips have been ‘standing room only’, but there really haven’t been a lot of complaints! When you think of it, that’s pretty good coming from a region where up until recently, commuter rail didn’t exist at all!
April 6th, 2009 at 7:48 am
I agree with the overall discussion, but, for the short term the movie analogy is weak. Ticket sales this weekend were up 68% compared to the same weekend last year. A night out at the movies may be all the entertainment some people are getting in a rough economy, and may be a good way to spend all the money they’re saving by not flying, not driving and by taking transit.